SRS Statistical Report 2024: India's TFR at 1.9 — Below Replacement Level for Fifth Consecutive Year

Detailed Summary

The Office of the Registrar General of India (ORGI), functioning under the Ministry of Home Affairs, released the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024 in May 2026. This landmark demographic report confirms that India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 — remaining below the replacement-level fertility of 2.1 for the fifth consecutive year. The report, drawn from a representative sample of approximately 8.9 million individuals across 8,839 sample units (based on the Census 2011 sampling frame), signals that India has crossed a critical demographic threshold — from population expansion to gradual population stabilisation and eventual demographic ageing.

Key Data Points from SRS 2024

Historical Background — SRS and India's Demographic Journey

The Sample Registration System (SRS) was established in India in 1964-65 as a large-scale, continuous household demographic survey to generate reliable annual estimates of vital statistics. It is one of the world's largest demographic surveys and serves as India's primary source for fertility, mortality, and demographic indicator data at both national and sub-national levels. India's TFR in 1985 was 4.3; it fell steadily to 2.3 by 2014, reached 2.0 in 2021, and declined further to 1.9 in 2024 — a structural transformation over four decades driven by urbanisation, female education, improved healthcare, and economic development.

Why India's Demographic Shift Matters

• Demographic Dividend at Risk: India's median age is approximately 28.4 years; working-age population is expected to peak around 2041. Without adequate employment and skilling, the dividend risks becoming a liability.
• Ageing Population: India's elderly population (60+) may rise from 10.5% today (~149 million) to 20.8% (~347 million) by 2050.
• North-South Divide: Southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala) have low TFR with ageing concerns; Northern states (Bihar, UP) still have higher TFR.
• Regional Imbalance: High fertility states are growing faster, potentially affecting political representation, resource allocation, and federal dynamics.
• Social Security Strain: Ageing population without adequate social security systems creates fiscal risk.

Tamil Nadu Relevance

Tamil Nadu has one of India's lowest Total Fertility Rates — consistently below 1.7 — alongside Kerala and Delhi. This means Tamil Nadu is already in an advanced stage of demographic transition. The state is ageing faster than the national average. This has implications for: (a) pension and welfare expenditure on elderly; (b) labour force availability; (c) healthcare infrastructure for ageing population; and (d) political representation in the Lok Sabha (delimitation debates). Tamil Nadu's low TFR reflects its high female literacy (81.7%), strong maternal healthcare, and urbanisation rate of over 48%.

Important Terms

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive lifetime (15-49 years), assuming age-specific fertility rates.
• Replacement Level Fertility: A TFR of 2.1 — the level at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Number of live births per 1,000 population per year.
• Crude Death Rate (CDR): Number of deaths per 1,000 population per year.
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): Number of deaths of children under 1 year per 1,000 live births.
• Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR): Probability that a child born in a specific year will die before age 5, expressed per 1,000 live births.
• Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB): Number of female births per 1,000 male births.
• Demographic Dividend: Economic growth potential resulting from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of working-age population is large relative to dependents.

Ministry and Organisation

• Report Released By: Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India (ORGI)
• Under: Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India
• SRS Established: 1964-65

Exam-Oriented Notes

• TFR = 1.9 (SRS 2024); Replacement Level = 2.1
• IMR = 24 per 1,000 live births (improved from 30 in 2019)
• CBR = 18.3 (2024) vs 21.0 (2014)
• SRS established in 1964-65; run by ORGI under Ministry of Home Affairs
• Sex Ratio at Birth improved to 918 (2022-2024)
• Rural TFR (2.1) is higher than Urban TFR (1.5)

TNPSC-Style MCQs

MCQ 1

Q: According to SRS Statistical Report 2024, what is India's Total Fertility Rate?

• A) 2.1
• B) 2.0
• C) 1.9
• D) 1.7

Answer: C — India's TFR is 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, for the fifth consecutive year.

MCQ 2

Q: Which organisation releases the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report in India?

• A) NITI Aayog
• B) Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
• C) Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India
• D) National Sample Survey Office

Answer: C — ORGI, under Ministry of Home Affairs, publishes the SRS report.

MCQ 3

Q: What is the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) reported in SRS Statistical Report 2024?

• A) 30 per 1,000 live births
• B) 27 per 1,000 live births
• C) 24 per 1,000 live births
• D) 19 per 1,000 live births

Answer: C — IMR declined to 24 per 1,000 live births in 2024, from 30 in 2019.